Paris or Bust – PSG v Arsenal, Champions League semi‑final (2nd leg)
Written by
Oliver SmithPublished: 7 May 2025
Updated: 7 May 2025
Fixture: Paris Saint‑Germain vs Arsenal
Score after 1st leg: PSG 1‑0 Arsenal (Ousmane Dembélé 4’) Al Jazeera
Date / time: Wednesday 7 May 2025, 20:00 BST (21:00 local)
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris
Referee: Daniele Orsato (ITA) – averages 5.2 yellows per UCL match
Paris has hosted some seismic European nights, but Wednesday’s clash feels different. PSG, fuelled by a decade of Qatari backing yet still empty‑handed in Europe, hold the slimmest of cushions after that early Dembélé strike in north London. Manager Luis Enrique insisted to reporters that the return leg will be “about staying true to our ideas,” adding that his star winger has shaken off a hamstring scare and is “100 percent ready”.
Across the tunnel, Arsenal travel armed with the Champions League’s best away defensive record and the return of midfield anchor Thomas Partey, whose suspension in the first leg forced Mikel Arteta into a back‑foot reshuffle. They also carry the words of Declan Rice, who told the press the Gunners will need “big balls and magic moments” to flip the tie and reach a first final since 2006 . Romanticism? Perhaps. But a club built on data‑driven detail now face 90 minutes where intangibles—crowd noise, nerve, officiating—may prove decisive.
Latest squad picture
| PSG | Arsenal |
|---|---|
| Fit: Dembélé (hamstring scare over), Kvaratskhelia, João Neves | Boost: Partey available; Jurrien Timber travelled but is a game‑time call |
| Out: Presnel Kimpembe (metatarsal) | Out: Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, Jorginho, Gabriel Magalhães, Tomiyasu |
| Doubts: Lee Kang‑in, Lucas Hernandez (back) | Questionable: Timber (match fitness) |
Projected starting XIs
| PSG (4‑3‑3) | Arsenal (4‑3‑3) |
|---|---|
| Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Nuno Mendes; Vitinha, João Neves, Fabián Ruiz; Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia, Doué | Raya; White, Saliba, Kiwior, Zinchenko; Rice, Partey, Ødegaard; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli |
Tactical pressure points
Dembélé‑Hakimi overload
Arsenal’s left flank has conceded 43 percent of their UCL xGA. If Zinchenko steps into midfield, Dembélé will drive at Kiwior while Hakimi overlaps. Expect Rice to slide across—opening central pockets for Vitinha’s third‑man bursts.
Partey unlocks Rice higher
Partey’s return shifts Rice into a pressing eight, tasked with disrupting João Neves’ metronomic distribution (Neves completes 92 percent forward passes). Kill that pivot and PSG revert to long diagonals.
Set‑piece chess
Arsenal top the tournament for set‑piece xG (0.46 p/90), PSG have conceded 35 percent of goals from corners this season. Watch Jover‑crafted routines: near‑post flicks (Saliba screen), back‑post overloads on Pacho.
Momentum metrics (UCL 2024‑25)
| Stat | PSG | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Press intensity (PPDA) ↓ | 10.1 (6th) | 8.9 (3rd) |
| Direct speed* ↑ | 1.42 m/s | 1.19 m/s |
| npxG / 90 | 1.89 | 1.72 |
| xGA / 90 | 0.87 | 0.61 |
| Corner diff. | +2.1 | +2.8 |
| Cards / match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
*Metres progressed toward goal per possession sequence.
Atmosphere & officiating
Stadium: 47 000 sell‑out; new acoustic panels amplify the Auteuil ultras (measured 112 dB vs Liverpool).
Referee: Orsato—strict on dissent, quick with early bookings (0.23 cards per foul). Vitinha and Saliba are a yellow from suspension.
Weather: 21 °C, light breeze from south‑west – aids in‑swingers toward Saliba’s back‑post runs.
Markets to monitor (check live prices)
| Bet idea | Why it appeals |
|---|---|
| First goal 1‑15 mins | PSG scored inside 15' in three of four UCL home ties; Arsenal start aggressively pressing. |
| Arsenal +0.5 corners Hcp | Gunners average 6.8 away corners; PSG concede 6.1. |
| Rice 65+ completed passes | Partey screens behind; Rice averaged 71 passes on the road. |
| Hakimi to be carded | Faces dribble‑happy Martinelli; 0.25 cards p/90 when up against high‑volume wingers. |
Compare and build your slip across trusted UK sportsbooks.
Match‑day offers worth checking
| Sportsbook | Promo Bonus UK | PSG v Arsenal Specials Live on Site |
|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas Sports | 100 % Profit Boost on your first settled sports bet (qualifying stake & min odds apply). | Bet‑Builder carousel featuring Saka 2+ shots on target, Rice 1+ tackle each half, plus an enhanced price on Arsenal to win the corner count. |
| FruityKing Sportsbook | Champions League “Bet & Get” – place a qualifying wager and collect a £30 Free Bet (opt‑in required, T&Cs apply). | “Second‑Leg Specials”: early‑payout if either side leads by 2, corners‑handicap lines, and a price boost on Dembélé anytime scorer. |
| Yeti Sportsbook | 50% Acca Profit Boost on any four‑leg football multiple—PSG v Arsenal markets included. | Boosted odds on Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (price uplift displayed in the Boosts tab) |
Bonuses and match specials checked 7 May 2025. Promotions can change without notice—always read each site’s terms before wagering. 18+ UK customers only. Please gamble responsibly – BeGambleAware.org.
PSG carry momentum and a sell‑out roar; Arsenal bring grit, Partey’s ballast and Rice’s rally cry about “big balls and magic moments”. Expect ferocious pressing, tactical fouls, and set‑pieces to loom large. Whether it’s a Kvaratskhelia curler or a Saliba towering header, one flick could send either club to Munich. Buckle up.
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