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Brøndby may sit sixth, yet they remain a tough nut to crack in Copenhagen: one defeat in five home matches (2 W-2 D-1 L) and a defensive record of just 1.0 goal conceded per game at Brøndby Stadion. Crucially, they have Midtjylland’s number—four straight victories in league and cup, the latest a 2-0 away win to start the Championship Round. Midtjylland are still in the title hunt but look fragile on the road: one win in their last seven away trips, shipping 12 goals in that span. With midfield enforcer Daniel Phillips suspended, the visitors’ spine is thinner than usual.

A simple Poisson model blending recent xG (Brøndby 1.7 for / 1.3 against; Midtjylland 1.8 for / 1.5 against) and home-away splits projects the hosts to win 56 % of the time, assigning fair odds around 1.78—almost identical to the current draw-no-bet quote of 1.77, yet with the safety of a refund on a draw. Given Brøndby’s head-to-head dominance and Midtjylland’s travel woes, the value tilts slightly towards the home side while keeping downside limited.

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Brøndby Draw-No-Bet at 1.77: Home Fortitude vs Travel Sickness

Brøndby Draw-No-Bet at 1.77: Home Fortitude vs Travel Sickness