A rebound spot lines up nicely for PSG. Luis Enrique’s side still average 2.6 non-penalty xG across their last five fixtures—even after drawing a blank against Botafogo—and they’re expected to start Mbappé, Dembélé and Barcola after resting mid-week. Seattle, meanwhile, have leaked 1.71 goals per MLS match this season and allowed opponents double-digit shot totals in nine of their last ten. The Sounders will be without first-choice centre-back Yeimar Gómez (hamstring) and holding midfielder João Paulo (suspension), thinning an already shaky spine.

PSG have cleared the 2.5-goal team total in four of their previous six against CONCACAF opposition, and a simple Poisson model using each side’s recent xG figures hands the visitors a 52 % chance of scoring three or more—implying fair odds around 1.92. With the market still at 1.85, there’s a modest edge, especially given Seattle’s injuries and PSG’s motivation to erase Sunday’s embarrassment.

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At 1.85 for 2 units, the bet is justifiable: the talent gap is huge, Seattle are missing key stoppers, and PSG traditionally respond with goals after a blank. Expect plenty of chances—if finishing returns to the mean, three goals are well within reach.

Sounders v PSG: Can the Parisians Hit Three?